Ge Long Hui·2025-07-03 13:04Core Viewpoint - SMIC (00981.HK) is experiencing a significant improvement in its technical performance, driven by a recovery in the semiconductor sector, indicating a healthy upward trend [1] Technical Analysis - The stock price has stabilized above the 10-day moving average (41.84 HKD) and the 30-day moving average (41.48 HKD), approaching the 60-day moving average (43 HKD), reflecting a positive short to medium-term trend [1] - Out of 16 technical indicators, 9 indicate "buy" or "strong buy," with the moving average system summarizing as "strong buy," providing a solid basis for trend-following strategies [1] - The stock price reached 43.85 HKD at 10:22 AM on the reporting day, with a trading volume of 7 billion HKD, indicating significant capital inflow [1] - The RSI is at 67, close to overbought territory, yet market momentum remains strong, suggesting potential for further upward movement [3] - The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the stock price positioned between the upper and middle bands, indicating potential resistance levels at 48.1 HKD and 50.5 HKD [3] - Key support levels are identified at 38.9 HKD and 42.1 HKD, with 42.1 HKD being a crucial short-term support level due to overlap with multiple moving averages [3] - The Ichimoku Cloud indicates that prices are stable above the cloud, confirming the continuation of the bullish pattern [3] Derivative Products Performance - Following a 6.71% increase in the underlying stock over two trading days, leveraged products linked to SMIC, particularly bull certificates, have shown significant gains, with HSBC's bull certificate (62405) rising by 36% and UBS's bull certificate (63551) increasing by 33% [4] - In contrast, call options have shown more moderate increases, with HSBC's call option (13200) and a call option from another issuer rising by 15% and 18%, respectively [4] Product Characteristics - HSBC's call option (16269) offers a leverage of 4.4 times with an exercise price of 51.93 HKD, suitable for investors optimistic about SMIC's future while aiming to reduce derivative costs [7] - The put option from another issuer (13733) has an exercise price of 42.18 HKD and a leverage of 3.1 times, appealing to cautious bearish investors [7] - The bull certificates, such as those from Societe Generale (60185), have a buyback price of 38.3 HKD and a leverage of 5.7 times, making them attractive for short-term bullish investors [11] Overall Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment indicates that bull certificates, due to their higher leverage and direct tracking of the underlying stock, can amplify returns in a clear upward trend, while call options may provide more stable returns if the underlying stock continues to strengthen [15]