美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人超预期 4、5月合计上修1.6万人 失业率意外降至4.1%

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market demonstrates strong resilience, with June employment growth exceeding expectations for the fourth consecutive month and a further decline in the unemployment rate, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach in its next interest rate decision [1][5]. Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, with April and May's non-farm employment figures revised upward by 16,000 [1][5]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2% [3][8]. - The significant growth in state and local government employment was a key driver for the better-than-expected data, while private sector employment only increased by 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased from 170.51 million to 173.38 million, with the number of unemployed individuals decreasing from 7.237 million to 7.1025 million [9]. - Disparities in unemployment rates were noted among different demographic groups, with the unemployment rate for African Americans rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites decreased to 3.6% [9]. Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Average hourly earnings rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3% and the previous month's 0.4%, with the annual wage growth rate at 3.7%, also lower than the revised 3.8% [11]. - The moderate wage growth may alleviate some inflationary pressures for the Federal Reserve [11]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the likelihood of a cut during the July 29-30 meeting dropping to near zero, while the probability for a September cut is around 75% [12]. - The market anticipates a total reduction of 50 basis points within the year, down from a prior expectation of 64 basis points [12]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures saw a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.3%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased to 4.261% [16].