Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price war in the food delivery industry in China is expected to last longer than previous rounds, with significant implications for profitability among major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com [3][4][5]. Industry Overview - The competition among Chinese internet giants in the food delivery sector has intensified, with Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan heavily investing to capture market share [4][5]. - In June alone, the total investment from these three companies reached 250 billion RMB, indicating a shift in the industry landscape [5]. Financial Implications - Goldman Sachs warns of profit pressure in the short term, predicting that Alibaba's food delivery business will incur losses of 41 billion RMB over the next 12 months, while JD.com is expected to lose 26 billion RMB [6]. - Meituan's EBIT profit is projected to decline by 25 billion RMB, reflecting the financial strain from the ongoing competition [6]. Market Scenarios - Goldman Sachs outlines three potential scenarios for the future of the food delivery market: 1. Base Case: Meituan maintains its market leadership with a market share ratio of 5.5:3.5:1 against Alibaba and JD.com [8]. 2. Duopoly: Alibaba gains significant market share through a 500 billion RMB investment, leading to a 4.5:4.5:1 market share distribution [8]. 3. Fragmented Market: JD.com improves its position to achieve a 5:3:2 market share ratio [8]. Strategic Intent - The primary goal of the current price war is not immediate profitability in food delivery but rather to secure user traffic for cross-selling more profitable e-commerce and travel services [9][10]. - Meituan has successfully demonstrated this model, achieving a 30%-40% EBIT profit margin through cross-selling [9]. User Engagement and Growth - The competition has led to significant increases in daily active users (DAU) for Alibaba and JD.com, with both platforms seeing an increase of 50 million DAU [10]. - JD.com's user base has grown from 1-1.3 million to 1.7 million in the food delivery segment, with 40% of new users converting to e-commerce customers [10]. Long-term Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the current losses will be viewed as a long-term marketing investment, with potential profitability or breakeven by 2027 [11]. - Pinduoduo, which has not directly engaged in the food delivery competition, is expected to benefit from the market dynamics as Meituan exits certain provinces [11].
阿里、京东、美团港股同日下跌，对于外卖大战，市场在担心什么？