【南篱/黄金】2025第七次非农

Group A: ETF Holdings - In June, gold holdings changed 19 times, with 11 increases and 8 decreases [3] - The last significant increase in gold prices was influenced by risk aversion, which is expected to continue until a substantial reduction in holdings occurs [3][5] - Recent frequent reductions in holdings indicate that retail investors are cautious about breaking through current price levels, suggesting gold may fluctuate around 3300 [5] Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The gold total ratio approached a critical 60% line in late June, with many institutions taking short positions [6] - The market saw a spike above the upper limit, indicating potential short squeezes, but the overall sentiment has returned to a balanced state [8] Group C: Fundamental Analysis Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's stance remains slightly softened, with market expectations leaning towards potential interest rate cuts in September if inflation eases and employment data weakens [8] - Predictions for upcoming FOMC meetings show a significant probability of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% until late July, with a gradual shift towards lower rates anticipated [8] Major Legislative Proposals - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is under negotiation, with implications for tax cuts, social security reductions, and increased national debt by $3.3 trillion [11][12] - The Senate has passed the bill, but the House's response remains uncertain, which could impact market sentiment [9] Non-Farm Payroll Data - The ADP employment data showed a significant drop, indicating potential weakness in the labor market, which may affect the upcoming non-farm payroll report [12][15] - Expectations for non-farm payrolls are set at 110,000, with variations in the actual data likely to influence gold and dollar valuations [15]