PM Grows Smoke-Free Profit Share: Will Margins Keep Expanding?

Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) is significantly advancing its smoke-free product portfolio, which contributed 44% of total gross profit in Q1 2025, marking a pivotal shift from combustible tobacco [1][8] - The gross margin for smoke-free products exceeded 70%, surpassing that of combustible products by over 5 percentage points in the same quarter [1][8] - Smoke-free gross profit increased by more than 33% year-over-year, indicating strong operating leverage and outpacing volume growth [3][8] Smoke-Free Product Performance - The growth in smoke-free products is attributed to strong pricing, favorable product mix, and rising demand for brands like IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV [2] - ZYN has been a key driver of margin expansion, benefiting from strong pricing and profitability per can [2] - Manufacturing efficiencies and productivity gains, particularly in IQOS, have contributed to the overall performance, despite an increase in SG&A expenses due to investments in smoke-free infrastructure [3] Competitive Landscape - Altria Group, Inc. (MO) reported an 18% volume growth in its oral nicotine brand, on!, but its smoke-free profit share remains modest with a 69.2% adjusted operating income margin [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) is rapidly expanding its modern oral nicotine portfolio, achieving nearly 10x year-over-year sales growth, although its gross margin declined by 220 basis points due to upfront investments and rising logistics costs [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - PM's shares have decreased by 1.9% over the past month, compared to a 0.1% decline in the industry [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.25X, higher than the industry average of 15.11X [9] - Zacks Consensus Estimates project year-over-year earnings growth of 13.7% for 2025 and 11.7% for 2026 [10]