Will The Decline in Legacy Drugs Pull Down BMY's Top Line?

Core Insights - Bristol Myers' legacy portfolio, which includes Eliquis, Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel, and Abraxane, experienced a significant revenue decline of 20% in Q1, totaling $5.64 billion, primarily due to generic competition and the redesign of U.S. Medicare Part D [1][8]. Revenue Performance - Eliquis generated sales of $3.56 billion, down 4% year-over-year, impacted by the Medicare Part D redesign, with expectations for sales recovery in H2 2025 as the coverage gap is eliminated [2][8]. - Revlimid's revenues plummeted 44% to $936 million due to lower demand from generic erosion [2]. - Pomalyst sales decreased by 24% to $658 million, while Sprycel saw a 53% decline to $175 million, and Abraxane revenues fell 52% to $105 million, all attributed to generic competition [3][8]. Competitive Landscape - Bristol Myers' growth portfolio includes key drugs such as Opdivo, Orencia, Yervoy, Reblozyl, and others, with a strong focus on oncology [4]. - The company faces significant competition from major pharmaceutical firms like Merck and Pfizer, particularly in the immuno-oncology space, where Merck's Keytruda dominates [4][5][6]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Bristol Myers' shares have declined by 14% year-to-date, contrasting with a slight industry decline of 0.6% [7]. - The company is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 7.45x forward earnings, which is below its historical mean of 8.86x and the large-cap pharma industry's average of 15.09x [10]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has decreased to $6.76 from $6.89 over the past 60 days, with a similar downward trend for 2026 estimates [12].