特朗普赚大了，迎来了第三份贸易协议，而且美联储降息有望提前！

Group 1: Trade Agreement with Vietnam - The U.S. signed a new trade agreement with Vietnam, marking the third trade deal during Trump's presidency [2] - Under the agreement, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. will incur a 20% tariff, while "transshipment" goods will face a 40% tariff [2] - Vietnam agreed to eliminate tariffs on U.S. imports, which previously faced a potential 46% tariff [2][4] - The trade deficit between the U.S. and Vietnam reached $123.5 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [4] - The agreement is seen as a small victory for the U.S., aiming to address the significant trade deficit with Vietnam [4] Group 2: Economic Context and Employment Data - Recent ADP employment data revealed a loss of 33,000 private sector jobs in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023 [7] - The average job growth over the past three months is at its lowest since the onset of the pandemic, particularly affecting the service sector [7] - Following the disappointing employment data, market speculation increased regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][10] Group 3: Implications for China and Global Trade - The trade agreement with Vietnam reflects a similar strategy to Trump's previous tariffs on China, aiming to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. [5] - Vietnam's smaller economic size compared to China allows for quicker compromises in trade negotiations [5] - The U.S. is also engaged in trade negotiations with Japan, facing challenges over tariffs on Japanese imports, particularly in the automotive sector [8][9] - The ongoing trade dynamics may influence the relocation of manufacturing orders from Vietnam back to China, depending on cost considerations [12]