“加速下行”？西安楼市何时迎来转机？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China, particularly in first-tier cities, continues to experience a downward trend in second-hand housing prices, with a lack of market confidence evident across various regions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In June, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities was 13,691 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.26% [1]. - First-tier cities saw an increase in the rate of decline, with prices dropping by 0.56% in June compared to 0.36% in May [1]. - The rebound in prices following the "924 New Policy" from last year is rapidly fading, leading to a depletion of home-buying demand [3]. Group 2: Policy Responses - Local governments have limited policy tools left, primarily relying on housing subsidies and adjustments to public housing fund loan policies [3]. - Several cities have introduced new public housing fund policies aimed at increasing loan limits and easing borrowing conditions to stimulate demand [4]. Group 3: Regional Focus - Xi'an - Xi'an's housing market is experiencing a downward trend, with a significant increase in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale [6]. - The average price of second-hand homes in Xi'an is approximately 12,258.67 yuan per square meter, which is below the national average [6]. - The coverage rate of public housing fund contributions in Xi'an is low, with only about 185,000 contributors, representing less than 20% of the city's permanent population [7]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - The impact of new public housing fund policies on real estate consumption is expected to be limited due to low coverage and insufficient loan amounts to meet the high prices in core areas [8]. - Consumer confidence remains a critical factor, with many potential buyers focusing on job stability and income rather than interest rates or policy details [8]. - The current government strategy aims to stabilize the market and avoid drastic declines, indicating a preference for gradual recovery [11].