特朗普“最重要经济政策”终于过会，一文读懂“大漂亮”法案最终版

Core Points - The Trump administration's $3.4 trillion tax and spending bill has been passed by the U.S. Congress, marking a significant shift in domestic policy direction [1] - The bill was passed by the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 to 214 votes, and is set to be signed by Trump [1] - The legislation represents a major pivot from Biden's policies towards tax cuts, increased defense spending, and stricter immigration enforcement [1] Tax Provisions - The bill permanently extends most individual and estate tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which were set to expire in 2025 [2] - Key provisions include increased standard deductions, reduced income tax rates for most taxpayers, and doubled estate tax exemption amounts [2] - Private universities with large endowments, such as Harvard, will face an 8% tax on net investment income, up from the current 1.4% [2] - The bill also eliminates tax credits for electric vehicles and climate projects established by the Biden administration [2] Social Security Cuts - Significant cuts to social safety net programs, particularly Medicaid, are included in the bill, with nearly $1 trillion in reductions over the next decade [3] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that changes to Medicaid could result in 11.8 million Americans losing health insurance by 2034 [3] - New work requirements for Medicaid recipients and changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are also part of the legislation [3] Defense and Immigration Spending - The bill significantly increases military spending and funding for immigration enforcement [4] - Specific allocations include nearly $47 billion for the construction of a southern border wall and $45 billion for detention centers [5] Debt Ceiling and Economic Impact - The legislation raises the national debt ceiling by $5 trillion, alleviating immediate risks of market disruptions due to potential payment defaults [5] - The CBO projects that the legislation will increase the U.S. deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [6] - The Trump administration claims that tax cuts and deregulation will spur economic growth, potentially increasing GDP by 4.2% to 5.2% over four years [6] - However, most economists predict that the revenue generated from tariffs will fall short of offsetting the costs of the tax and spending bill [7]