鲍威尔：面对质疑仍“观望”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintains a patient and watchful stance on potential interest rate cuts, emphasizing that decisions will depend on upcoming economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell reiterated that the Fed is closely monitoring the impact of tariff policies on prices and economic growth, suggesting that concerns over tariffs have hindered the Fed's ability to lower rates [1]. - The last interest rate cut by the Fed occurred in December 2024, and since then, rates have remained unchanged for four consecutive meetings [1]. - There is internal division within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some members advocating for cuts as early as July [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI increased by 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2]. - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June was reported at 49, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, despite being above the expected 48.8 [3]. - Private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs in June, raising concerns about economic recession and potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts to stimulate growth [3]. Group 3: Political Pressures and Fed Leadership - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell and has indicated intentions to nominate a successor to weaken Powell's influence, with several candidates mentioned [2]. - Powell emphasizes the need for a non-political approach to decision-making, focusing on data-driven policies despite external pressures [2].