KVB PRIME:观望就好！美国或将经历“更长时间的高通胀”

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Atlanta Fed President Bostic highlight a cautious approach towards U.S. economic policy amid uncertainty, advocating for patience and a wait-and-see strategy to avoid detrimental adjustments in interest rate policy [1][3]. Economic Policy and Uncertainty - Bostic emphasized that making significant adjustments to monetary policy in the current uncertain environment is unwise, noting that the resilience of the U.S. macroeconomy provides a buffer for policymakers [3]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged this year, indicating a wait for more key economic signals before making decisions [3]. Tariff Policy and Inflation - Bostic is particularly focused on the impact of tariff policies, suggesting that price increases due to tariffs may manifest gradually rather than as a sudden spike, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations over time [4]. - He warned that if his assessment is correct, the U.S. economy could face prolonged high inflation pressures, which would pose significant challenges for future Federal Reserve policy decisions [4]. Labor Market Observations - Despite a positive employment report for June, Bostic noted subtle changes in the labor market, such as a slowdown in hiring, indicating a gradual softening of the labor market [4]. - He strongly advised the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remain patient and wait for clearer economic conditions before making decisions to avoid unnecessary market volatility [4]. Government Debt Concerns - Bostic pointed out that the rising U.S. government debt levels will have significant implications for policymakers, as high debt servicing costs could crowd out resources for other important economic activities [5]. - He highlighted that the recently passed tax and spending bill could increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over ten years, raising concerns about the potential impact on fiscal policy and interest rates [5]. - Bostic expressed worry that if financial markets perceive the U.S. government debt as a rising risk, interest rates may move independently of Federal Reserve policy, creating substantial challenges for monetary policy formulation [5].