CHINA RESOURCES BEER(291.HK)：1H RESULTS PREVIEW;EXPECTING DD% YOY NET PROFIT GROWTH IN FY25

Core Viewpoint - CRB is expected to accelerate growth in the second half of 2025, benefiting from easier year-on-year comparisons, while facing challenges in its baijiu business but showing promising recovery in beer sales [1] Group 1: Beer Segment Performance - Positive year-on-year growth in beer sales volume is anticipated in the first half of 2025, with revenue growth estimated at low single-digit to mid single-digit percentages due to steady average selling prices and low single-digit volume growth [2] - Favorable weather conditions in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to boost overall beer consumption in both on-premise and at-home channels in China [2] - CRB's collaboration with new retail channels, such as Sam's Club and Freshhema, is promising and may enhance profitable growth [2] Group 2: Baijiu Segment Challenges - The baijiu segment is projected to experience a year-on-year decline in sales in the first half of 2025, with deteriorating profitability due to policy tightening that restricts luxury consumption, including alcohol [3] - The new regulations issued in May 2025 are expected to have a profound and lasting impact on baijiu consumption in China [3] Group 3: Financial Outlook - CRB aims for double-digit year-on-year growth in net profit for fiscal year 2025, which is considered achievable [3] - A forecasted 2.5% year-on-year decrease in unit cost of goods sold for the beer segment in 2025 is attributed to lower raw material prices, with an overall gross profit margin expected to expand by 1.4 percentage points [3] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 60%-70% from 2025 to 2027 while reducing capital expenditures [3] Group 4: Valuation - The valuation remains attractive with a target price unchanged at HK$31.10, implying a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.7x for 2025 [5]