【UNFX课堂】美国2025年6月就业报告解读：劳动力市场温和降温，支持美联储谨慎观望

Core Insights - The June employment report indicates a moderate growth and stability in the U.S. labor market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, aligning closely with the 12-month average of 146,000 [1][6] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, reflecting a stable labor market environment since May 2024 [1][6] - Long-term unemployment and marginally attached workers have increased, suggesting underlying challenges within the labor market [2][6] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, a figure that is consistent with the previous year's monthly average [1] - The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, with a total of 7 million unemployed individuals [1] - The labor force participation rate was stable at 62.3%, and the employment-population ratio remained at 59.7% [1] Wage and Hours Analysis - Average hourly earnings in the private non-farm sector rose by 0.2% to $36.30, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.7%, indicating a decrease from previous years' higher growth rates [2][6] - Average weekly hours worked slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours, suggesting a potential slowdown in overall labor demand [3] Sector Performance - Job growth in June was primarily concentrated in less economically sensitive sectors, such as state government (especially education) and healthcare, while federal employment continued to decline [3][4] - Most other major industries showed little change in employment numbers, consistent with the overall moderate growth trend [4] Federal Reserve Implications - The report's data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious and data-dependent monetary policy stance, indicating no immediate need for rate hikes or significant cuts [7] - The overall tone of the report aligns with the Fed's goal of achieving a "soft landing" for the economy, allowing for a gradual cooling of economic activity and labor markets [7][8] Market Reactions - Stock markets interpreted the report as a positive signal, reducing the risk of a hard economic landing and indicating manageable wage pressures [8] - Bond markets experienced downward pressure on yields due to the moderate employment and wage data, potentially enhancing expectations for future rate cuts [8] - The direction of the U.S. dollar will depend on market interpretations of this report relative to data from other major economies and its implications for future Fed policy [8]