美国非农数据超预期，美元反弹至97，油价受供应压力制约上涨空间

Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [3] - This strong employment data indicates the resilience of the U.S. economy, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which reflects ongoing tightness in the labor market [3] Group 2: Dollar Strength and Oil Prices - The robust employment data has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which is now around 97, providing cost support for oil priced in dollars [2][3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to around 80% [2] Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Geopolitical Risks - OPEC+ is set to discuss a plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August during their meeting on July 6, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding production expectations [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose by 450,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching a new high in over a year, indicating a proactive approach to releasing production capacity [4] - The geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reducing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East [4]