领峰金评：非农就业超预期向好 黄金跳水大暴跌

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline from a high of $3363 to around $3311 due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which dampened expectations for rapid interest rate cuts and reduced gold's appeal [1] - In June, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Prior to the non-farm data release, market bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve had dropped to 23%, with a 98% probability for a September cut. The strong employment data extinguished short-term rate cut hopes, leading traders to abandon July cut bets entirely, with September cut probabilities also falling to 80% [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious stance, indicating that the Fed would closely monitor the impact of tariff discussions on inflation and employment, aligning with the view that unless economic data shows significant deterioration, rate cuts in July and September are unlikely [1] - On trade, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned countries against delaying trade negotiations, suggesting that tariffs could revert to levels seen on April 2, with approximately 100 countries expected to face at least a 10% reciprocal tariff [1] Technical Analysis - The gold market is showing a short-term bearish trend after breaking below the neckline of a standard M-top pattern near the resistance level of $3363. A failure to break the neckline resistance on any rebound will likely continue the downward trend [3] - The MACD indicator shows a death cross near the zero line, indicating that the market has entered a downward adjustment phase. The recommended strategy is to focus on short positions near resistance levels [3] Trading Strategy - For gold, a short position is suggested at $3344.0 with a stop loss at $3354.0 and targets set at $3330.0 and $3300.0 [4] - For silver, a short position is recommended at $37.00 with a stop loss at $37.30 and targets at $36.50 and $36.30 [6] Market News - Upcoming economic data releases include France's May industrial output at 14:45, Switzerland's June adjusted unemployment rate at 15:00, and Eurozone's May PPI at 17:00 [6]