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东方证券:重点关注盈利稳定、高分红的电解铝板块投资机会 建议关注中国宏桥
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-04 03:32

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the continuous destocking of aluminum chain and aluminum processing products, primary aluminum prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, and leading companies may exhibit higher profit elasticity [1] - In the short term, there is no favorable demand side, while in the medium term, investment should focus more on supply-side logic [1] - The current overall dividend yield of the sector remains attractive compared to other dividend assets, suggesting a focus on China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Long-term stable low-cost electricity supply is a hard constraint for the domestic and international electrolytic aluminum industry [2] - Although overseas energy costs have been at a low level in recent years, there may be significant upward risks in the future [2] - The electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain a good supply-demand pattern in the medium term [2] Group 3 - The stability of the supply-demand pattern is expected to enhance the stability of future industry profits [3] - Continuous decline in capital expenditure within the electrolytic aluminum industry is likely to lead to sustained improvements in the balance sheets of listed companies, ultimately reflecting in increased dividends and buybacks [3] - Major listed companies in the electrolytic aluminum sector are projected to have dividend yields close to 6% [3]