邓正红能源软实力：就业市场强劲缓解衰退担忧 石油需求区域裂差加剧市场波动

Group 1 - The resumption of US-Iran nuclear negotiations has reduced the risk of conflict in the Middle East, leading to a decline in oil prices [1][2] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $65 and $75 per barrel in the short term due to various geopolitical and economic factors [1][2] - Barclays has revised its forecast for US oil demand to increase by 130,000 barrels per day, reflecting stronger economic resilience [1][3] Group 2 - The US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on networks assisting Iranian oil trade, increasing pressure on Iran's "shadow fleet" [2] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has ended long-term support for solar and wind energy, favoring oil, gas, and coal production [2][4] - The supply side is characterized by OPEC's planned increase of 410,000 barrels per day and high production levels from US shale oil, creating a competitive landscape [3][4] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape has shifted, with the risk premium for oil prices decreasing significantly due to ongoing US-Iran negotiations and a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel [3] - The dual approach of US sanctions and diplomatic negotiations reflects a structural contradiction in US soft power projection [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, combined with strong employment data, create monetary policy tension that indirectly influences oil pricing [4]