促消费政策“组合拳”：下半年或拉动7000 - 9000亿消费

Core Viewpoint - The central government and local authorities have launched a series of consumption-boosting policies, which are expected to sustain consumer demand growth in the second half of the year, with service consumption emerging as a new driving force [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - A joint document by the central bank and six departments was released in late June, introducing 19 new policies aimed at enhancing financial support for consumption, including innovative financial products and increasing property income [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a campaign for the 2025 New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season, running from July to December, focusing on vehicle exchanges and creating diverse consumption scenarios [1] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu have rolled out special action plans to boost consumption, featuring unique activities [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, the highest growth rate since 2024 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate a third batch of funds for the replacement of consumer goods, with a national subsidy plan in place [1] - An estimated 1,380 billion yuan in funds is expected to stimulate consumption by 700 to 900 billion yuan in the second half of the year [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The retail sales total is projected to grow by approximately 6% year-on-year in 2025, with an anticipated increase of 1 percentage point in growth rate for the second half of the year [1] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to drive sales, and service consumption is likely to peak during holiday seasons [1] - Experts predict a recovery in consumption trends, emphasizing the importance of structural changes and the rise of online consumption, with a shift towards green, smart, and personalized consumption driven by digital technologies [1]