Group 1 - The House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful Act," which is expected to be signed by President Trump before Independence Day, aiming to extend non-permanent tax cuts from his first term [1] - The act is projected to increase the deficit by over $2 trillion over the next decade, with the 2024 deficit expected to reach 6.4% of GDP, the highest level during peacetime and non-recession periods [1] - Concerns about the lack of a plan to address the deficit may lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve [1] Group 2 - The new fiscal stimulus plan is expected to provide timely support to the slowing U.S. economy, boosting consumer spending and business confidence [2] - Despite the support from the act, economic growth is still anticipated to remain below trend due to the impact of tariffs [2] - Inflation risks are skewed to the upside due to factors such as a weaker dollar, increased actual tariff rates, and potential energy price hikes from geopolitical conflicts [2]
普徕仕：“大而美法案”带来通胀上行风险 或推高美国国债收益率
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-04 06:09