Group 1 - Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 by $6 to $72 per barrel and for 2026 by $10 to $70 per barrel, reflecting a reassessment of global oil demand growth prospects amid tightening inventories and weak non-OPEC supply [1] - Despite recent easing of geopolitical risks, oil price trends are primarily supported by better-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals, with a focus shifting back to core supply-demand balance logic as oil inventories continue to decline [8] - OPEC+ countries have accelerated the pace of exiting production cuts, but actual output growth lags behind targets, indicating limited rebound potential in production due to reduction pressures faced by some member countries [8] Group 2 - Barclays has significantly raised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by an additional 260,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by stronger-than-expected consumption in developed economies, particularly in the U.S. [8] - The mismatch between supply and demand is expected to continue supporting oil prices in the coming quarters, with Brent crude likely to maintain a trading range above $70 per barrel [8] - The stability and recovery of energy prices will positively impact the currencies of oil-producing countries, suggesting investors should pay attention to currencies closely linked to energy, such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone [9]
Moneta外汇:市场基本面改善成关键驱动
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-04 06:08