艾睿铂：2030年中国品牌欧洲市场份额达10%，投资组合将调整

Core Insights - The report by AlixPartners highlights that Chinese leading new energy vehicle (NEV) companies have not only withstood unprecedented challenges but have also become a driving force in transforming the global automotive industry through a "new operating model" [1][3]. Industry Trends - The "new operating model" of Chinese NEV companies has halved the time to market for new vehicle launches, reduced investment by 40%-50%, and provided a 30% cost advantage [3][7]. - By 2025, it is projected that Chinese brands will capture 67% of the domestic market share, while foreign brands will see a continuous decline [3]. - By 2030, the market share of Chinese manufacturers in Europe is expected to double to 10%, with an annual production increase of 800,000 vehicles, while European manufacturers may close the equivalent of 1.5 factories (approximately 400,000 units) [3]. Competitive Landscape - The intense competition in China's NEV market is driving significant technological and cost efficiencies, but many companies struggle to achieve sustainable profitability [4]. - As the market matures, consolidation is anticipated, with only the most competitive brands expected to thrive, potentially leading to 15 brands maintaining financial viability by 2030, capturing 75% of the NEV market [4]. Opportunities and Innovations - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding and seizing opportunities from the upgrade in mobility, particularly in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), with the global ADAS market projected to reach $50 billion by 2030, and China's share expected to rise to 45% [5]. - AI-enabled solutions are expected to reduce traditional development cycles and validation costs by 20%, marking a significant shift in the automotive industry towards AI-driven processes [6]. Export Dynamics - Despite a slowdown in exports due to tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, the "new operating model" driven by partnerships and joint ventures is gaining attention, enhancing the speed of vehicle launches and reducing costs [7].