如何客观评估卖老股的估值

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges of pricing old shares in the context of a slowing IPO market, highlighting that selling old shares has become a significant exit strategy for investors [1][2] - There is often a discrepancy between the selling price desired by investment managers and the price that the market is willing to pay, leading to difficulties in closing transactions [4][5] - Investment managers tend to have a "reluctance to sell" mentality, wanting to sell at higher prices, which can hinder the negotiation process [3][4] Group 2 - Many Limited Partners (LPs), especially state-owned ones, express concerns about selling shares at perceived low discounts, complicating the exit process [7][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding whether LPs' concerns stem from a genuine belief in higher project value or from internal decision-making processes [9] - The current market conditions have led to significant valuation adjustments, with many companies now facing steep discounts compared to previous inflated valuations [7][8] Group 3 - To assess the true value of old shares, the article suggests abandoning the anchor effect of previous valuations and focusing on what investors are willing to pay [10][12] - It is crucial to recognize that market valuations often include additional conditions that may not reflect the true value of a company [14][15] - The article points out that valuations are typically determined by a small number of investors rather than a broad market consensus, making it essential to avoid rigidly adhering to past valuations [16][17] Group 4 - The lack of liquidity in the market significantly impacts the valuation of old shares, as low trading volumes can lead to inflated perceptions of value [18] - The article argues that without liquidity, the established valuations may not hold true, making it challenging to determine appropriate discount rates for old shares [18]