美财政部搞“影子QE”，美联储独立性遭70年来重大危机！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's shift towards increasing financing through short-term debt will undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, effectively placing monetary policy under fiscal control, leading to a steeper yield curve and a weakened dollar [1][6][9]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - The Treasury's strategy to issue more short-term debt will severely limit the Federal Reserve's ability to independently formulate monetary policy, marking a potential crisis in its autonomy [1][4][8]. - The increase in short-term debt issuance is expected to further erode the Fed's independence, which has been compromised over the years [1][4][6]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Implications - The issuance of more short-term Treasury bills may lead to structural increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as these instruments possess a stronger "monetary attribute" compared to long-term bonds [1][4][6]. - Historical data indicates that changes in the proportion of short-term bills in outstanding debt often precede long-term inflation trends, suggesting a causal relationship [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Asset Prices - The explosion of short-term debt issuance is likely to push risk assets to higher levels, driven by more efficient clearing and deeper liquidity in repurchase agreements [6][8]. - The current stock market is at historical highs, and the effectiveness of short-term debt issuance as a stimulus may be diminishing due to extreme market saturation and high valuations [6][8]. Group 4: Long-term Debt and Liquidity - Increased issuance of short-term debt correlates positively with the growth of Federal Reserve reserves, while long-term debt issuance tends to tighten liquidity [8]. - The combination of rising asset prices and short-term debt accumulation poses a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, potentially forcing a reversal of monetary easing policies [8][9].