折叠屏供应链“等待苹果”

Core Viewpoint - The domestic foldable smartphone market is experiencing a surge, with major brands like Honor, vivo, and Samsung launching new models, while the A-share market for consumer electronics sees significant gains due to anticipation of Apple's entry into the foldable screen segment [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The foldable smartphone market is currently at a bottleneck, with many brands adopting a conservative approach and reducing their product lines due to inherent issues like screen creases, quality, and pricing [4]. - Despite technological advancements, user growth has plateaued, with many consumers returning to traditional smartphones after initial trials [4][5]. - In contrast, the high-end smartphone segment in China is growing, with sales of devices priced above 5000 yuan projected to reach approximately 78.4 million units in 2024, up from 11% in 2020 [5][6]. Apple's Potential Impact - Apple's entry into the foldable market is highly anticipated, with reports indicating that the foldable iPhone is in the prototype development stage and expected to launch in late 2026 [3][8]. - The industry believes that Apple's involvement could redefine market dynamics and product standards, as it typically enters markets only when technology is sufficiently mature [8][11]. - The high technical barriers in the foldable supply chain, particularly in precision manufacturing and new materials, present challenges that need to be addressed before mass production can occur [9][10]. Supply Chain and Technological Challenges - The cost structure of foldable smartphones is heavily influenced by high-value components such as flexible screens and hinge systems, with screen modules priced between 1100 to 2200 yuan and hinge systems ranging from 350 to 1200 yuan [9]. - Despite advancements, there are still weaknesses in the supply chain, particularly in high-end materials and manufacturing processes, which are dominated by a few international leaders [10][11]. Future Outlook - The industry is divided on the future of foldable smartphones, with some analysts optimistic about Apple's potential to lead a technological revolution, while others caution that significant hardware improvements are necessary for mainstream adoption [16][17]. - The evolution of foldable smartphones may include new form factors like triple-fold or rollable designs, but the focus should be on balancing display space and portability rather than merely increasing folding capabilities [17].