Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and political uncertainties from the French elections are driving up global geopolitical risk premiums, which supports the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Geopolitical Factors - The Israel-Lebanon tensions and the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict have not shown signs of easing, contributing to market anxiety [1] - Political uncertainty from the French parliamentary elections is putting pressure on European markets, further increasing the appeal of gold [1] Central Bank Actions - Strong demand for gold from global central banks, especially in emerging markets, is a long-term structural factor supporting gold prices [1] - The motivations for central banks to diversify foreign exchange reserves and hedge against geopolitical risks are expected to persist in the medium to long term [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Despite hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the market still anticipates potential interest rate cuts within the year, which could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - A clear dovish signal from the Federal Reserve could act as a catalyst for gold price breakthroughs [2] Technical Analysis - The key resistance level for gold is between $2400 and $2450 per ounce, which has been tested multiple times without a successful breakthrough [3] - Strong support levels are identified at $2300 per ounce and between $2270-$2250 per ounce, indicating a bullish overall technical structure as long as prices remain above $2300 [3] - Monitoring momentum indicators like RSI and MACD near resistance levels is crucial to identify potential short-term pullback risks [3] Trading Insights - Analysts suggest that the medium-term outlook for gold remains positive due to multiple supportive factors, despite facing strong resistance in the historical high range [3] - A strategy of waiting for gold to effectively break and stabilize above $2450 could signal a strong bullish trend, with targets set at $2500 and above [3] - If gold encounters resistance again in the $2400-$2450 range, opportunities for buying near the $2300-$2350 support area should be considered, with appropriate stop-loss measures [3] Risk Management - The volatility near historical highs may increase, necessitating strict stop-loss settings and position control [4] - The combination of geopolitical risks, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and expectations for global monetary policy easing provides solid support for gold prices [4] - A breakthrough above the $2450 resistance could initiate a new upward trend, with $2500 as the next significant target [4]
避险与降息预期交织,黄金剑指2500?关键阻力位前蓄势待发
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-04 07:50