Why I Think Viking Therapeutics Is an Asymmetric Growth Opportunity

Core Insights - The biotech industry, particularly in obesity treatment, is experiencing a significant opportunity with Viking Therapeutics' VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, which has shown promising results in clinical trials [3][4][11] - Viking's VK2735 has demonstrated a 14.7% weight loss at 13 weeks with a tolerability profile that matches placebo, setting it apart from competitors like Wegovy and Zepbound, which have higher discontinuation rates [3][4][5][11] - The obesity drug market is projected to reach $200 billion by 2030, and Viking's oral formulation could potentially expand the market by attracting patients who avoid current treatments due to side effects [5][6][21] Company Overview - Viking Therapeutics is developing VK2735, which has shown a 13% discontinuation rate, comparable to placebo, indicating a strong safety profile [4][6] - The company has secured a $150 million manufacturing deal with CordenPharma, ensuring capacity for 100 million autoinjectors and 1 billion tablets annually, which alleviates manufacturing concerns common in small-cap biotechs [18][19] Market Dynamics - Viking's stock has seen a significant decline of 64% from its 52-week high, reflecting broader market challenges rather than company-specific issues [9][10] - Institutional investors are showing confidence in Viking, with significant bullish positions being accumulated, contrasting with rising short interest among retail investors [13][16] Investment Opportunity - The upcoming phase 2 oral data release is anticipated to present an asymmetric investment opportunity, with potential for the oral formulation to achieve efficacy similar to injectables [20][21] - Current market valuation of Viking at $3 billion is significantly lower than the value created by successful GLP-1 drugs, suggesting a potential for revaluation if VK2735's oral formulation proves effective [21][24] - The market is currently pricing Viking as a high-risk investment, but the data suggests a more favorable outlook, with a reasonable probability of success for VK2735 being much higher than the market's implied odds [23][24][25]