短期需求支撑，铁矿石价格一周反弹4%，高盛警告百元关口恐成“天花板”

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes the recent rise in iron ore prices is based on a reasonable short-term fundamental recovery, but the upside potential is limited, and risks of chasing higher prices are accumulating [1] - The price of iron ore has rebounded by 4% to $96 per ton, driven by strong steel production and consumption in China, as well as a surge in imports from India, providing solid support in the $95-$100 range [2][3] - Global supply growth from major miners (Australia, Brazil, etc.) is forming a clear "supply ceiling," making it difficult for prices to sustainably break above $100 [1][3] Group 2 - China's steel demand remains robust, supported by stable manufacturing performance and strong steel exports, with daily iron ore consumption from 247 steel mills currently exceeding levels from July 2024 by 3% [2] - An important marginal change comes from India, where lower iron ore prices have led to a surge in imports, potentially impacting Goldman Sachs' 2026 price forecast [2] - The market's focus on supply-side reforms in China's steel industry has improved long-term profit prospects for steel mills, encouraging them to accept higher raw material prices [2] Group 3 - Global iron ore supply is steadily increasing, with significant growth in shipments from Australia (up 3% or 2.5 million tons), Brazil (up 3% or 900,000 tons), Canada (up 17% or 800,000 tons), and South Africa (up 8% or 300,000 tons) [4] - Despite strong short-term demand, the report indicates that the growth in global iron ore supply will act as a "ceiling" on price increases, with prices expected to face downward pressure in the fourth quarter, potentially falling to $90 per ton [3]