通胀大跳水！英国央行8月降息几成定局，英镑多头且战且退？

Group 1: Inflation Data and Market Reaction - The UK June CPI year-on-year growth unexpectedly dropped to the Bank of England's target level of 2.0%, with core CPI falling to 3.9% [1] - All key inflation indicators significantly underperformed expectations, leading to strong market anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England on August 1 [1] - Following the inflation data release, the British pound (GBP) experienced a sharp decline against major currencies, with GBP/USD falling below 1.28 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts caution that the current decline in GBP may have fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut, suggesting a potential rebound risk [2] - The Bank of England's communication prior to the August meeting could influence GBP, especially if officials temper aggressive rate cut expectations [2] - Stronger-than-expected UK economic activity data could undermine market bets on aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Political Factors - GBP/USD has broken below a short-term upward trend line, with key support located in the 1.2750-1.2700 range [3] - The upcoming economic policies of the new government (Labour Party) may impact market confidence [3] - Future movements of GBP will depend on the Bank of England's guidance, key economic data performance, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3]