A股到美债：四大资产怎么选？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in response to the declining interest rates and the impact of geopolitical events, particularly the US-China trade tensions, on various asset classes. Group 1: Economic Environment and Investment Strategy - The current economic environment is characterized by a significant decline in inflation, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [1][2] - The interest rates for one-year deposits at major banks have dropped to 0.9%, leading to a diminishing return on traditional savings, which poses challenges for individuals seeking to grow their wealth through savings alone [2][3] - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in a highly uncertain global environment, advocating for a strategy of not putting all eggs in one basket [2][3] Group 2: Asset Classes Overview - A-shares, gold, government bonds, and US Treasuries are identified as the core asset classes for domestic investors, each with distinct risk-return profiles [3] - A-shares are seen as having optimistic potential, contingent on effective domestic policy support for the economy, while the bond market is expected to have limited upside and increased volatility compared to 2024 [3][4] - Gold is recommended for accumulation rather than speculation, as its price may face short-term pressures despite having long-term upward potential due to factors like a weakening dollar and potential tariff increases [3][10] Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The US-China trade conflict is identified as the primary "black swan" event affecting the A-share market, with significant market reactions observed following escalations in trade tensions [4][8] - Despite initial pessimism regarding economic performance post-trade conflict, recent data indicates a stabilization in manufacturing and external trade, contributing to a recovery in A-share prices [6][8] - The article notes that the market's future performance will depend heavily on the resilience of financial stocks and the overall economic outlook [6][8] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The perception of gold as an investment has become more complex, with recent price fluctuations reflecting heightened sensitivity to market conditions and geopolitical developments [10][11] - The article highlights that while gold prices surged earlier in the year, the current market sentiment is cautious, with predictions of potential declines in gold prices due to stronger US economic indicators [10][14] - Long-term prospects for gold remain positive, particularly as a hedge against the declining credibility of the dollar, but short-term volatility is expected [14][16] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shifted from a bullish to a more cautious stance, with lower returns expected in 2025 compared to the previous year, making it more suitable for tactical trading rather than buy-and-hold strategies [17][19] - The article suggests that investors should focus on yield movements in the 10-year government bond market to inform their trading decisions, as the relationship between bond prices and yields is inversely correlated [21][23] - The US Treasury market is under scrutiny due to rising yields, which are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens, indicating a need for careful investment strategies [23][25]