哈佛大学发布《2025全球关键和新兴技术指数报告》，揭示全球科技新格局

Core Insights - The report from Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center outlines the intense global competition in key emerging technologies as of 2025, focusing on the rivalry between the US and China, with Europe lagging behind [1][6]. Group 1: Key Technology Areas - The report identifies five critical technology areas with assigned strategic weights: Semiconductors (35%), Artificial Intelligence (25%), Biotechnology (20%), Space Technology (15%), and Quantum Technology (5%) [3][6]. - Semiconductors are described as the "heart" of modern technology, while AI is viewed as a "multiplicator of competition" impacting various sectors [3][6]. Group 2: Global Technology Landscape - The US is recognized as the only "super technology power," leading in all five technology areas due to its vibrant decentralized innovation ecosystem [6][7]. - China ranks second globally, showing strong momentum, particularly in biotechnology and quantum technology, where it is rapidly closing the gap with the US [7][9]. - Europe ranks third overall but exhibits uneven performance across different fields, excelling in AI and biotechnology while lagging in semiconductors and space technology [10]. Group 3: Biotechnology Developments - Biotechnology is highlighted as the field where China has the best chance to surpass the US, driven by its dominance in pharmaceutical production and a significant increase in clinical trials and patents [12][13]. - Recent investments from major pharmaceutical companies in China underscore international recognition of its biotechnology capabilities [12][13][15]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence Progress - In AI, while the US maintains a numerical advantage in model development, China is rapidly improving in model quality, with the performance gap narrowing significantly [16][18]. - China's cost-effective model training presents a competitive edge, with substantial reductions in training costs compared to US counterparts [18]. Group 5: Semiconductor Industry Challenges - The semiconductor industry is characterized by its complex global supply chain, with the US, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea holding dominant positions [20][22]. - China's semiconductor development faces significant challenges due to US export controls, impacting its access to advanced manufacturing technologies [22]. Group 6: Future Technology Competitions - In quantum technology, the competition involves the US, China, and Europe, with China excelling in quantum sensing and communication, while the US leads in quantum computing research [23][25]. - The space technology sector is driven by innovative public-private partnerships in the US, exemplified by companies like SpaceX, which are revolutionizing space exploration [25][27]. Group 7: Nature of Technological Competition - The report emphasizes that technological progress relies on openness and cooperation, yet geopolitical realities are creating barriers to global collaboration [28]. - Countries are adopting strategies like "nearshoring" and "friend-shoring" to enhance supply chain resilience, which may lead to increased costs and reduced efficiency [28]. Group 8: Conclusion on Future Technology Race - The future of technological competition will hinge on the balance between open innovation and closed protectionism, as well as the interplay between national strategies and grassroots innovation [29].