Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-04 09:22Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll data revealed a complex resilience in the U.S. labor market, prompting a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy paths [2] - The non-farm employment population increased by 147,000, exceeding the expected 110,000, with the previous value revised from 139,000 to 144,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of surpassing economists' predictions [3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%, remaining stable within a narrow range of 4.0%-4.2% since May 2024 [3] Group 2 - Average hourly wage growth showed a moderate slowdown, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.7%, slightly down from the expected 3.9% and revised previous value of 3.8% [6] - The report indicated a combination of strong employment and moderate wage growth, suggesting a vibrant labor market while alleviating inflation concerns [6] - Long-term unemployed individuals increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, accounting for 23.3% of the total unemployed, indicating underlying structural issues in the labor market [6] Group 3 - Following the data release, financial markets adjusted rapidly, with the dollar index rising by 0.47% to 97.308, while spot gold fell by $19 to $3,328.04 per ounce, a decrease of 0.65% [8] - The expectations for Federal Reserve policy shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 98% to 80% after the data release [11] - Despite the reduced likelihood of immediate rate cuts, the overnight index swap market still indicates over 70% chance of a rate cut before September, reflecting a long-term expectation for policy easing [11] Group 4 - Employment growth in June showed a pattern of "government strong, private weak," with government jobs increasing by 73,000, primarily in state and local education sectors, while the federal government cut 7,000 jobs [12] - The private sector added 74,000 jobs, below the expected 100,000, with notable growth in healthcare and social assistance, but overall performance was weaker than anticipated [12] - Analysts noted that the report did not provide an urgent reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates immediately, emphasizing the ongoing strength in employment data [15] Group 5 - Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. Treasury yield forecasts despite the June non-farm data easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, predicting year-end yields of 3.45% for two-year and 4.20% for ten-year Treasuries [16] - The firm highlighted that government hiring driving growth and a slight decline in labor participation rate weakened the perceived strength of the data [16] - The potential signing of a $3.4 trillion fiscal plan by Trump, including tax cuts, could increase government borrowing but may enhance the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries if achieved through rate cuts [18]