Gold - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding the expected increase of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the previous value of 4.2% and the expected 4.3%, which is bearish for gold [1] - Following the non-farm report, the probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 23.8% to 5.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 94.8% [1] - Technically, gold experienced a sharp decline, touching a low of $3,311, and if it surpasses $3,344 today, it may continue its upward trend, potentially reaching $3,480 next week [1] Oil - President Trump announced a 20%-30% tariff increase on goods exported to the U.S. from over ten countries, indicating ongoing trade tensions that could impact the market [2] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in oil production by 414,000 barrels per day starting in August, which may heighten concerns about oversupply and negatively affect oil prices [2] Seasonal Demand - The period from the last week of May to September 1 marks the summer travel season in the U.S., which typically boosts oil demand [3] - Despite OPEC+ increasing oil production, the current summer travel season is expected to drive strong oil demand, creating a mix of bullish and bearish factors [3] - Technically, oil has shown a fluctuating performance, with a resistance level at $67.50 and support at $65.80 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded to around 40,000 and has been maintaining a range-bound movement, indicating a correction since the rise on June 23 [4] - Short-term resistance is noted at 40,000, while a drop below 39,400 could lead to a target near 39,000 [4] Copper - Copper prices have been on an upward trend since April 9, recovering all losses from early April, indicating strong bullish momentum [5] - A recent decline from the $5.13 level has led to a focus on the support level at $4.98, with a potential deeper correction if this support is breached [5]
百利好晚盘分析：非农好于预期 七月降息无望
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-04 09:22