Lakala(SZ:300773) Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-07-04 09:49Core Viewpoint - Lakala plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to advance its international development strategy, despite facing significant performance challenges, including a 51.71% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q1 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Background and Performance Challenges - The announcement of the Hong Kong listing aims to accelerate the application of digital currency in cross-border scenarios, targeting the growing fintech sector of cross-border payments and digital currencies [2]. - In 2024, Lakala's cross-border payment transaction volume reached 49.2 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with over 120,000 clients, an 80% growth [2]. - However, cross-border business only accounted for 1.16% of the company's total payment transaction volume, limiting its contribution to overall performance [2]. - Financial data shows a decline in revenue to 5.759 billion yuan in 2024, down 3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 351 million yuan, a 23% decrease [2]. Group 2: Recent Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue fell to 1.299 billion yuan, a 13.01% decrease year-on-year, with net profit halving to 101 million yuan, a 51.71% drop [3]. - The company's payment transaction volume in Q1 2025 was 982 billion yuan, down 10.51% year-on-year, contributing to the decline in revenue and profit [3]. - Lakala's user base is significantly smaller compared to competitors, with only 18 million active personal users, less than 1/50 of Alipay's user base [3]. Group 3: Transformation Efforts and Market Position - Lakala is pursuing three transformation paths: cross-border payments, a "payment + SaaS" strategy, and AI technology applications, each facing substantial challenges [4]. - In the "payment + SaaS" strategy, the company added over 10,000 SaaS service stores in 2024, with a 65% increase in transaction volume, but its SaaS penetration rate is only 8%, lower than competitors [4]. - The company has adopted an "AI First" approach, achieving over 70% replacement of human customer service with AI, but 60% of R&D spending is focused on POS upgrades, limiting innovation [4]. Group 4: Opportunities and Governance Issues - The recent enactment of the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong presents potential opportunities for Lakala, although significant challenges remain in integrating stablecoin operations [5]. - The cross-border application of digital renminbi has surged, with a 217% year-on-year increase in trade settled using digital renminbi in Q1 2025, providing Lakala with a first-mover advantage [5]. - Governance concerns have arisen, with major shareholders reducing their stakes significantly, and executive compensation rising despite declining profits, indicating potential structural imbalances [5]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - Lakala has faced setbacks in investments, including a significant loss from exiting a stake in a bank, reflecting a passive strategic adjustment [6]. - The market's short-term optimism is evident from a 16.16% stock price increase following the listing announcement, but long-term viability remains uncertain [6]. - Analysts suggest that while the Hong Kong listing may provide short-term funding and brand benefits, overcoming business bottlenecks is essential for sustainable growth [6].