2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-07-04 10:36Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance, with multiple banks reaching historical highs and a total market capitalization of 15.7 trillion yuan, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 4, nine banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, reached historical highs, contributing to a 1.86% increase in the China Securities Banking Index, which has risen 17.7% year-to-date [1][2]. - All 42 stocks in the banking sector closed in the green, with 37 stocks increasing by over 10%, and 17 stocks rising by more than 20% [2]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank led the gains with a year-to-date increase of 41.69%, making it the only stock in the sector to exceed a 40% rise [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Performance - Analysts attribute the strong performance to a combination of low interest rates, high dividend yields, and improved asset quality, which have made bank stocks attractive to long-term investors [4][5]. - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.68, indicating potential for valuation recovery after being undervalued for an extended period [3][4]. - The recent changes in public fund management and performance evaluation are expected to lead to increased bank stock holdings by active funds, further supporting the sector's growth [5]. Group 3: Dividend Announcements - Several banks have announced significant dividend payouts, with China CITIC Bank declaring a cash dividend of 0.1722 yuan per share, and China Merchants Bank announcing a cash dividend of 2.000 yuan per share, totaling approximately 504.40 billion yuan [6][7]. - As of now, around 30 banks have finalized their 2024 profit distribution plans, with total cash dividends reaching 427.38 billion yuan, indicating a trend of increasing dividend payouts across the sector [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the decline in net profit and revenue for listed banks is expected to stabilize, with a projected year-on-year revenue decrease of 0.9% and a net profit decrease of 0.5% [8]. - The current market conditions are viewed as the beginning of a long-term bullish trend for bank stocks, driven by low interest rates and the revaluation of RMB assets [8].