Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed strong performance, with 147,000 new jobs added, exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims remained low at 233,000, indicating resilience in the labor market, which boosts the economic outlook for the U.S. [1] - This data has strengthened the U.S. dollar and suppressed gold prices, while also reducing market expectations for a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned countries against delaying trade negotiations, suggesting that tariffs could rise to levels seen on April 2, affecting around 100 countries with at least 10% reciprocal tariffs [1] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the House indicates a trend towards expansionary fiscal policy, potentially supporting the economy and lowering safe-haven demand [1] - The Atlanta Fed President indicated that the U.S. economy may experience prolonged high inflation, reinforcing market expectations for sustained high interest rates, which increases the holding cost of gold [1] - Discussions between Trump and Putin regarding the Middle East and Ukraine, along with plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, have eased geopolitical risks, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - The gold price has shown a bearish trend after retreating from its high, currently facing pressure from the non-farm data, trading below the 20 and 60-period moving averages [4] - The price is under pressure from the middle Bollinger Band, with potential further resistance from the upper Bollinger Band as time progresses [4] - The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a possible short-term pullback in gold prices [4] Trading Strategy - A short position is recommended around 3338.2, with a stop loss at 3345.0 and targets set at 3311.5 to 3283.5 [5] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is currently in a weekly oscillation phase, with the recent non-farm data exerting downward pressure on bullish momentum [8] - The price is facing strong resistance near the upper boundary of the weekly oscillation and the previous high of 37.06, indicating potential obstacles for upward movement [8] - The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone, suggesting weakness in the market [8] Trading Strategy for Silver - A short position is suggested around 36.97, with a stop loss at 37.20 and targets set at 36.49 to 36.16 [9]
领峰环球金银评论：非农数据意外亮眼 金价应声暴跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-04 11:21