经济风暴“将至未至”，美联储7月降息希望破灭？

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is currently supported by a tax and spending bill, with concerns shifting from stagnation to inflation risks [1] - The House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, with a vote of 218 to 214 [1] - Non-farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market despite uncertainties from trade and immigration policies [1][2] Employment Market Insights - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 106,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [2] - Government employment saw a significant increase of 73,000 jobs, particularly in state and local sectors related to education [2][5] - Private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year, primarily driven by the healthcare sector [2][5] Legislative Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill extends tax cuts from 2017, benefiting high-income groups while negatively impacting low-income healthcare access [8] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the bill could leave 11.8 million Americans uninsured by 2034 [8] - The bill is projected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, with a maximum effect of 0.6% [8] Long-term Economic Effects - The bill is expected to increase federal debt significantly, with estimates of over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next decade [9] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the bill contradicts recommendations for reducing fiscal deficits in the medium term [9][10] - Concerns are raised about the declining demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which could lead to higher borrowing costs [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July has diminished, with a focus shifting towards inflation management [11] - The labor market's health, as indicated by the non-farm payroll report, provides the Fed with room to maintain current policies [11][12] - Future rate cuts may still be possible, with September being a likely timeframe for potential adjustments [12][13]