欧洲最大资产管理机构重磅发声！

Group 1: Long-term Outlook on China's Economy - The long-term optimism towards China's economy remains unchanged, with a belief that economic transformation is a gradual process currently underway [1][2][11] - New growth drivers for China include energy transition initiatives such as electric vehicles and the technology sector, which has attracted substantial investment [10][11] - Chinese technology companies maintain attractive valuations compared to their US counterparts, indicating potential investment opportunities [10][11] Group 2: Globalization and Trade Issues - Globalization is difficult to reverse due to the high degree of global economic integration, although trade conflicts present significant challenges [14][19] - Prolonged trade disputes could seriously undermine global economic growth, with trade fragmentation disrupting supply chains [16][19] - There is optimism that trade issues will be resolved in the long run, as all parties have incentives to address these challenges [16][19] Group 3: US Debt and Economic Concerns - The US government debt problem is a long-standing issue, with rising interest costs and fiscal spending programs facing pressure in the coming years [21][23] - The debt interest paid by the US accounts for about 3%-4% of GDP, and if not addressed, could lead to cuts in social security benefits [23][24] - Despite concerns, the risk of US default is considered almost zero, as countries issuing debt in their own currency do not need to default [24] Group 4: Investment Trends and Market Dynamics - There is a notable capital flow into European stock markets and emerging markets, indicating a diversification away from US assets [30][31] - As of the end of 2024, the US accounted for over 70% of the MSCI World Index, suggesting that reducing the proportion of US assets in portfolios is reasonable [31] - Investors are not selling US stocks on a large scale but are rebalancing their portfolios to reduce dependence on the US market [30][31]