财说| 110亿元投资纸浆产能，仙鹤股份这笔投资划算吗？

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to invest 11 billion yuan to establish an integrated high-performance paper base new material project using bamboo pulp, aiming to enhance production capacity and reduce reliance on imported raw materials [1][2]. Investment Details - The investment will be executed in two phases, with each phase costing approximately 5.5 billion yuan, leading to a total investment of 11 billion yuan [1]. - Upon completion, the project is expected to add an annual production capacity of 800,000 tons of bamboo pulp and 1.2 million tons of high-performance paper base materials, generating an estimated annual output value of 5.15 billion yuan and tax revenue of about 450 million yuan, while creating around 2,000 jobs [1]. Strategic Rationale - The investment aims to extend the industrial chain, achieve raw material self-sufficiency, and control costs, addressing the current dependency on imported wood pulp, which poses risks to cost management and supply chain stability [2][5]. - In 2024, the daily consumer series, which includes specialty paper, is projected to account for 47.05% of total revenue, highlighting the critical need for stable raw material supply [2]. Financial Implications - The total investment of 11 billion yuan represents 136% of Xianhe's net assets for 2024, with a current debt-to-asset ratio of 65.11%, indicating potential financial strain from large-scale financing [7]. - The company plans to finance the first phase of 5.5 billion yuan in batches, adjusting based on future demand and market conditions [7]. Market Conditions - The bamboo pulp production capacity utilization rate is expected to be only 85% in 2024, raising concerns about the feasibility of absorbing the new production capacity without facing impairment risks [7]. - Xianhe Co. faces competitive pressures from peers like Qingshan Paper Industry, which is also expanding its bamboo pulp capacity, potentially leading to increased price competition in the industry [7][8].