瑞穗：解码中国的财政刺激——从补贴到销售

Core Viewpoint - The report from Mizuho Asia Ltd. anticipates that the People's Bank of China will utilize targeted short-term and medium-term tools to supplement liquidity and guide a slight decrease in market repurchase rates in the coming weeks [1][7]. Group 1: Subsidy Program - The Chinese government has confirmed the issuance of the third batch of the "trade-in" subsidy program, expected to allocate approximately 70 billion RMB, which will account for half of the remaining budget for 2025 [2]. - The first two batches of funds released in January and April totaled 162 billion RMB, representing 54% of the annual budget, and have driven consumption of 1.1 trillion RMB, approximately 7 to 8 times the amount of subsidies issued [2][5]. - The upcoming funds are projected to stimulate retail sales exceeding 500 billion RMB in the third quarter of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity - The liquidity tightening observed recently is primarily attributed to a significant issuance of government bonds and typical quarter-end funding pressures, rather than the subsidy program [1][7]. - The net issuance of government bonds in May and June reached approximately 2.9 trillion RMB, which is substantial compared to the 162 billion RMB in subsidies issued [7]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to deploy a series of targeted policy tools, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, to replenish liquidity and guide interbank repurchase rates back to target levels [7].