伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作：麻杆打狼两头怕

Core Viewpoint - Iran has announced the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), following recent armed conflicts with Israel and the U.S., which raises concerns about the monitoring of Iran's uranium enrichment program [1][5]. Group 1: Iran's Nuclear Agreement and IAEA Role - The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) allowed Iran to enrich uranium up to 3.67%, sufficient for civilian nuclear purposes but not for weapons-grade uranium [5]. - The IAEA was established as the main body to verify Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement, ensuring oversight of Iran's nuclear activities [5][6]. - The U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 under President Trump has led to increased tensions and conflicts in the region, with Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities now reaching 60%, nearing weapons-grade levels [6][7]. Group 2: Impact of Recent Conflicts - The recent U.S.-Israeli military actions have not significantly impaired Iran's nuclear capabilities, and the military strikes may have only delayed Iran's nuclear program by a few months to years [6][10]. - Despite the military actions, diplomatic negotiations regarding the JCPOA were still ongoing, indicating a complex interplay between military and diplomatic efforts [7][8]. Group 3: Iran's Domestic and International Position - Iran's decision to suspend cooperation with the IAEA reflects its dissatisfaction with the agency's role and adds further complications to the JCPOA negotiations [8][9]. - The Iranian government has not fully expelled IAEA inspectors, suggesting that the suspension may be more symbolic than a complete cessation of cooperation [9]. - Iran's leadership faces a dilemma: adopting a hardline stance could lead to further isolation, while yielding to pressure may undermine their domestic authority [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current situation suggests a stalemate where neither side can effectively escalate or negotiate, leading to a prolonged period of uncertainty [11]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is likely to continue efforts to entangle the U.S. and Iran in a prolonged conflict, which could further complicate the regional dynamics [11].