21评论丨美联储的独立性危机

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report is interpreted as a strong signal that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July, leading to a rise in the dollar index after four consecutive days of decline [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate for May is reported at 2.3%, down from 6.8% three years ago, while the unemployment rate for June stands at 4.1%, up from 3.5% three years ago, indicating increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate recorded a negative value of -0.5% in Q1 2025, a significant drop from previous values of 2.4% and 3.1%, suggesting a decline in economic vitality [3] Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, as well as the need to avoid financing fiscal deficits through monetary policy [4] - The current U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with about one-quarter of fiscal revenue allocated to interest payments, prompting the White House to advocate for interest rate cuts to reduce debt servicing costs [3] Political Pressures - The White House expresses dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged, with President Trump publicly calling for further rate cuts [3] - Potential successors to Fed Chair Powell, such as current Fed Governor Waller and Treasury Secretary Basant, have shown support for quicker rate cuts, indicating internal pressure within the Federal Reserve [4]