钱峰：探索构建“龙象共处”的竞融新生态

Core Insights - The economic relationship between China and India is at a critical historical juncture, with bilateral trade exceeding $130 billion and both countries accounting for over 20% of the global economy [1][2] - India must recognize that the China-India economic relationship is not a zero-sum game but an essential external support for its economic development, especially in light of its goal to become a developed country by 2047 [1] Trade Dynamics - The trade scale between China and India continues to expand, with bilateral trade projected to reach $138.478 billion in 2024; however, India faces a trade deficit of nearly $100 billion with China [1][2] - The trade imbalance is attributed to differences in industrial structures, with China exporting high-value industrial products while India primarily exports raw materials and agricultural products, with high-value exports accounting for less than 10% [1][2] Investment Cooperation - Chinese investment in India peaked at approximately $8 billion in 2022 but has since declined to between $4 billion and $5 billion, representing only 0.5% to 1% of India's total foreign investment [2] - There is significant potential for investment cooperation that remains untapped, which could help balance trade structures and promote regional industrial integration [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions have increasingly interfered with economic relations, as India has implemented measures such as visa restrictions and app bans, leading to a sharp decline in bilateral exchanges [2] - Despite these tensions, India's demand for Chinese manufactured goods in key production sectors continues to rise, indicating a deep reliance on Chinese supply chains [2] Strategic Recommendations - To rebalance trade, China could increase imports of Indian agricultural and pharmaceutical products, while India could adopt a "precision opening" strategy in sectors like pharmaceuticals and IT services [3] - Establishing "China-India cooperation demonstration zones" in industrial corridors could enhance mutual investment and improve supply chain efficiency [3] Collaborative Opportunities - Both countries should move beyond zero-sum thinking and focus on mutual development opportunities, establishing regular dialogue mechanisms to resolve trade disputes [4] - Exploring third-party market cooperation in sectors like infrastructure in Africa and energy transformation in the Middle East could create joint project communities, leveraging China's engineering capabilities and India's software services [4] Future Outlook - The strategic value of the China-India economic relationship extends beyond bilateral interests, as China serves as a critical neighbor and market for India [5] - To achieve its economic vision for 2047, India should embrace collaboration in emerging fields like digital economy and green energy, fostering a new ecosystem of competition and integration [5][6]