华尔街见闻早餐FM-Radio | 2025年7月5日

Market Overview - On July 4, U.S. markets were closed for Independence Day, leading to a risk-off sentiment with S&P 500 futures down 0.6% and European blue-chip index STOXX 50 down over 1% [2] - European chip stocks fell, with ASML Holdings down approximately 2.6% [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on EU brandy, causing Remy Cointreau's stock to drop 7.2% intraday before recovering to close up 2% [2] - The 10-year German bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points, while the UK bond market remained weak with a cumulative rise of 5 basis points this week [2] - Gold prices rose nearly 0.6% amid increased risk aversion, while WTI crude oil dropped 1.5% due to expectations of significant OPEC+ production increases [2] - In Asia, A-shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3500 points, while the Hang Seng Index fell below 24000 points [2] Key News - The U.S. government informed General Electric Aviation that it can resume supplying jet engines to COMAC in China, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [8] - President Trump announced plans to send tariff letters to trade partners, with rates potentially ranging from 60%-70% to 10%-20% [8] - The EU's trade negotiations with the U.S. have not reached a breakthrough, with ongoing discussions expected over the weekend [9] - Indonesia expressed confidence in reaching a "bold trade agreement" with the U.S., proposing zero tariffs on 70% of U.S. products [9] - India is preparing a strong response to U.S. auto tariffs, potentially imposing retaliatory tariffs due to the impact on its exports [10] Legislative Developments - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" bill, marking a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy towards tax cuts and increased defense spending, while cutting funding for healthcare and clean energy projects [11] - The bill is expected to severely impact Tesla's carbon credit revenue, which accounted for 39% of its net profit in 2024 [11] - Tesla is reportedly facing challenges with new model shortages, leading to increased pressure on sales [12] Market Sentiment - Bank of America indicated that the S&P 500 is nearing a sell signal, with the "Big Beautiful" bill raising the risk of a summer market bubble [13] - Iron ore prices rebounded by 4% this week, driven by strong demand from China, but Goldman Sachs warned that prices may struggle to exceed $100 per ton [13] Domestic and Overseas Macro - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in China is pushing for measures to stabilize the real estate market [14] - The U.S. Treasury's strategy to increase short-term bond issuance may undermine the Federal Reserve's independence and affect inflation control [15] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain current interest rates, focusing on achieving a 2% inflation target [16]