美国7月降息无望，特朗普再次威胁开除鲍威尔，理由竟是装修超标

Core Viewpoint - The June employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor has significant implications for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and highlights the ongoing tension between President Trump and Fed Chairman Powell [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing market expectations of 110,000 and exceeding the previous month's growth [3]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, marking the lowest level since February and below both the expected and prior month's figures [3]. Political Implications - Strong employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, which is contrary to President Trump's calls for more aggressive monetary easing [3][5]. - Trump criticized Powell, labeling him as "Mr. Too Late," and pointed to the Fed's budget overruns as a reason for potential congressional investigations [3][5]. Economic Context - The report reflects a robust U.S. economy and a thriving job market, yet it poses challenges for Trump, who is concerned about the implications for his economic agenda [3][5]. - Powell's reluctance to cut rates is influenced by fears of rising inflation, which is partly attributed to Trump's tariff policies [5]. Federal Reserve Leadership Concerns - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has led to speculation about potential changes in Fed leadership, with reports indicating he has a shortlist of candidates for replacement [7]. - The strong employment report has increased the likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged in July, with market predictions showing a 95.3% probability of no rate cut [8]. Broader Economic and Political Landscape - The ongoing struggle over interest rate policy illustrates the complex interplay between U.S. economic conditions and political pressures, highlighting the delicate relationship between the President and the central bank [10].