回顾泡泡玛特的“至暗时刻”

Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant resurgence, with its core IP Labubu gaining global popularity and its stock price rebounding from a low in 2022 [1][2] - The previous downturn, where the stock price fell by 90%, highlighted the company's vulnerabilities and prompted a transformation towards a more resilient business model [2][14] Business Model and Vulnerabilities - Prior to 2022, the company's business model relied heavily on the success of a few key IPs and the growth of the domestic market, making it fragile under pressure [6][8] - The concentration of resources on a limited number of successful IPs created dependency, leading to market anxiety when growth slowed [7][10] - The pandemic in 2022 acted as a "black swan" event, impacting both the IP side and the domestic market, resulting in store closures and inventory crises [9][11][12] Transformation and Resilience - Following the crisis, the company shifted its focus to building "antifragility," allowing it to thrive amidst chaos and uncertainty [5][15] - The restructuring involved breaking down a centralized product development system into smaller, independent product studios, fostering innovation and flexibility [16][17] - The transition to a global Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model enabled the company to embrace randomness and capture market opportunities more effectively [18][20] Capturing Opportunities - The company's adjustments positioned it to capitalize on unexpected opportunities, exemplified by the global success of Labubu, which was a "positive black swan" event [22][23] - The ability to quickly respond to market trends through its DTC network allowed the company to convert localized events into global successes [25][28] New Challenges - Despite the successful capture of Labubu's popularity, the product now faces new vulnerabilities as it transitions from a cultural IP to a fashion item, leading to a shift in its value anchor [29][32] - The demand for Labubu has changed from dedicated fans to trend-followers, creating a risk of rapid demand decline as fashion trends shift [33][34] - The company now faces the challenge of managing the balance between its newfound success and the inherent instability of fashion trends [39][40]