“抢出口”提振，越南二季度GDP同比增长7.96%，高于预期

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's economy experienced strong growth in Q2, driven by foreign buyers accelerating purchases ahead of potential high tariffs from the U.S., highlighting the direct impact of trade policy uncertainty on global supply chains [1][2] Economic Performance - Vietnam's Q2 GDP grew by 7.96%, surpassing market expectations of 6.85% and exceeding Q1's growth of 6.93% [1] - Exports in Q2 increased by 18% to $116.93 billion, contributing to a trade surplus of $4.41 billion, which was a key factor in economic growth [1][4] - Imports also rose by 18.8% to $112.52 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $4.41 billion [4] Trade Agreements and Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about Vietnam's future, with Fitch stating that exports and investments will remain strong for the remainder of the year [2] - The new trade agreement is expected to provide greater certainty for Vietnam's economy and accelerate the government's industrial upgrade efforts, shifting exports from low-margin goods to higher-value products like semiconductors [2] - Dominic Scriven, founder of Dragon Capital, views the trade agreement as a net positive, alleviating foreign trade risks and allowing focus to return to domestic and private sector growth [2] Industrial Activity - Industrial production in Q2 grew by 10.3%, indicating active manufacturing activity [4] - In June, exports grew by 16.3%, while imports increased by 20.2%, reflecting robust trade activity despite slight deviations from market expectations [4] - June's industrial output rose by 10.8% year-on-year and 4.1% month-on-month, further demonstrating the strength of the manufacturing sector [4]