美联储降息救市！今日爆出的五大消息已全面来袭

Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell insists on a cautious approach, stating that the impact of tariffs on inflation could be both temporary and persistent [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with a near-even split among officials regarding interest rate cuts, as 7 officials oppose cuts while 8 support them [1] - Recent shifts towards dovish stances by officials like Waller and Bowman align with President Trump's calls for rate cuts, indicating a potential political influence on monetary policy [3][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Commerce Department reported a 2.7% year-over-year increase in the core PCE price index, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.1% and income dropped by 0.4%, marking the largest decline of the year [3][4] - Consumer confidence index plummeted to 93, significantly below expectations, with short-term expectations dipping to 69, indicating potential recession signals [4] - The housing market shows signs of weakness, with new home sales dropping by 13.7% in May, the largest decline in three years [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of potential rate cuts, the probability of a July rate cut surged to 21%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4.3% [3] - The dollar index reached its lowest point since February 2022, reflecting market volatility in response to Federal Reserve signals [3] - Despite initial optimism, regional Fed presidents quickly cautioned against premature conclusions regarding inflation risks, emphasizing the need for more data [3] Group 4: Political Influence and Market Implications - Trump's potential nomination of a new Fed chair before Powell's term ends raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [6] - The political landscape is further complicated by Trump's allies pushing for rate cuts, while economic policies may paradoxically increase inflationary pressures [6][8] - The market is experiencing turbulence, with significant fluctuations in stock indices and commodities, as traders react to the evolving political and economic landscape [9][11]