不要乱买房子了！楼市4个“坏消息”袭来，准备购房的家庭要留意

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with various factors contributing to the decline in housing prices and overall market sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The real estate market has been in a state of adjustment since March 2023, following years of accumulated issues, including the impact of the pandemic on household income and a shift in buyer behavior towards more rational purchasing decisions [1]. - As of August, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities has been declining for six consecutive months, with 96 cities experiencing price drops [1]. Group 2: Developer Issues - Major developers such as Evergrande, Country Garden, and R&F have faced significant financial troubles, including defaults on dollar bonds and bankruptcy applications, leading to a crisis of trust among buyers [5][6]. - Many developers have debt ratios exceeding 100%, exacerbating the issue of unfinished projects and further undermining buyer confidence [6]. Group 3: Taxation and Holding Costs - The prolonged downturn in the real estate market has negatively impacted land sales, prompting calls for the introduction of property taxes, which could significantly increase holding costs for investors [7]. - Experts predict that property tax trials may expand rapidly once the economy improves, with potential implementation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [7]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since April 2023, the number of second-hand homes listed for sale has been rising, with a 25% year-on-year increase in June across 13 major cities, indicating a trend of investors selling off properties [8][9]. - The "recognize house, not loan" policy has led to a surge in listings in first-tier cities, further intensifying the downward pressure on second-hand home prices [8]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - Following three years of the pandemic, consumer sentiment has shifted towards increased savings, with 58% of residents preferring to save more rather than invest, indicating a decline in housing demand [10][11]. - This heightened saving inclination poses a significant challenge to the recovery of the real estate market, as potential buyers remain cautious [10].