主要国家财政货币双宽松，下半年全球经济有望重回温和复苏势头

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth outlook has deteriorated in the first half of the year due to trade tensions, but a moderate recovery is expected in the second half supported by fiscal and monetary easing in major countries [1][2] - The U.S. tariff policy has been a significant factor affecting global economic performance, with recent agreements easing trade tensions [1][6] - Analysts suggest that the current economic cycle resembles that of the second half of 2019, with expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and fiscal expansion in the U.S., Europe, and China [1][4] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The current round of global monetary easing has been ongoing for over a year, with significant rate cuts from the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England [4] - The U.S. is expected to implement 1-2 rate cuts in the second half of the year, contingent on employment and inflation data [4][6] - The U.S. Congress has passed a significant tax and spending bill, projected to increase the deficit by $3.5 trillion to $4.2 trillion over the next decade, which is expected to stimulate investment and consumption [5][6] Trade and Inflation Concerns - Trade protectionism continues to pose risks to global economic growth, with projections indicating that growth in 2025 will remain below long-term trends [10][11] - Analysts highlight that the resolution of tariff issues will be crucial for the growth outlook, particularly for Asian economies [11][12] - Recent surveys indicate a more optimistic outlook for the global economy, with a notable increase in respondents expecting improvement in economic conditions [9] Regional Economic Projections - Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 upward, reflecting improved expectations due to easing trade tensions [7] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2025, with similar upward adjustments for China and the Eurozone [7] - Despite a generally positive outlook, the potential for continued trade disputes remains a significant concern for economic stability [10][11]