Where Will Moderna Be in 10 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Moderna has experienced a significant decline in stock performance and sales due to waning demand for its coronavirus vaccine, losing over 90% of its value since its peak in 2021 [1][2][7] Company Background - Moderna initially gained prominence during the pandemic, generating up to $18.4 billion in annual revenue from its coronavirus vaccine, leading to substantial profits [4] - The company has since faced challenges as vaccine demand decreased, and its RSV vaccine sales have also underperformed [5] Cost Management and R&D Focus - In response to declining sales, Moderna has initiated a cost realignment plan aiming to reduce GAAP operating costs by up to $1.7 billion by 2027 [6] - The company is prioritizing research and development, with plans to launch as many as 10 new products in the next three years, although these launches are not guaranteed [6] Future Product Pipeline - Moderna anticipates having around 10 products on the market in 10 years, including several cancer vaccines and a cytomegalovirus vaccine, along with potential respiratory virus vaccines [11] - The company has a strong success rate in late-stage trials, with an 83% probability of success in phase 3 trials compared to the industry average of 69% [12] Revenue Projections - By 2028, Moderna expects to break even on an operating cash cost basis and generate $6 billion in revenue, with new product launches from 2026 to 2028 projected to yield a compounded annual growth rate of 25% or more [12] - Even with partial success in product launches, Moderna could achieve significant revenue growth over the next decade [13]